While the long term trend for gold still looks positive. The HUI Gold Bugs Index chart since the March highs is clearly in a downward trend.
But I think that gold and gold stocks are going to reverse this trend very soon. And I may be in the minority with this opinion, but I think that Ben Bernanke is NOT done cutting rates. I predict that Bernanke will take the Fed Funds rate down to 1% before he’s done.
Housing is the key to the Fed’s rate cut decisions. Stocks are way off the DOW 14,000 highs from last fall. The US consumer is deeply in debt and has a negative savings rate. What’s different about this recession is that there is no savings nest egg, cushion for the consumer to fall back on.
Unemployment is rising and will continue to do so. Real incomes have been falling since 2000, and with a negative savings rate in the US, the Fed must prop up consumer assets (housing, and stocks), or consumer sentiment, and spending (2/3rds of US GDP) are going to collapse further.
I think that Congress, the Treasury, the Fed, and the CFTC are going to do what ever they need to do to bring oil prices down. And once they near $100, I think Bernanke will cut, and continue to cut rates down to a 1% Fed Funds rate, as long as oil stays near $100.
Here’s an interesting chart.
Most people feel Oil is in a bubble. But, this chart shows that it’s really just now catching up with gold!
The long term trend line for Gold is still very bullish, but that first chart above for the HUI Gold Bugs Index has me worried, because in my opinion, gold stocks must lead the metal, if gold is going to new highs.
What’s scary is that this corrective phase in gold and gold stocks could get really ugly, with gold correcting all the way back down to the $630 range – and STILL be in a long term bull trend!
While most believers in gold are long term investors and not traders. It is very difficult to take a correction from $1,000 down into the $600’s and still hold on to one’s gold.
I think that gold is a “hold” right now, and only with minimum core positions. I want to see the gold stocks lead the metal. And I want to see the HUI break out of it’s cascading downward trendline shown in my first chart, before I would move gold back to a “buy.”
Hold core positions strongly. If you’re a trader – you may want to study this chart from internet trading guru SliderOnTheBlack. Here is a link to an incredible chart on his Silicon Investor Forum Board that shows the HUI gold bugs index consolidation and breakout patterns for this cycle.
We may just be experiencing another consolidation phase in gold stocks, and the HUI may very well be a spring that is getting tightly compressed, just prior to it’s next major breakout. And I believe that the fuse that is going to launch gold is Mr. Ben Bernanke, because I do NOT think that he’s done cutting rates.
Given the choice between inflation, and a housing collapse pushing the US into a very severe recession, I have no doubt that Bernanke is going to choose inflation.
Here’s another great chart. This one is called – “Ben Bernanke’s Report Card”
And guess who his teacher is?
Another great chart in this post.
Hang tough gold bugs. I think that the US stock market, housing market, jobs/unemployment, retail sales, auto sales, and the banking/credit crisis are going to get worse – and Mr. Bernanke is finally going to do what he proclaimed he would do if he ever faced a deflationary crisis – drop money from helicopters!
Good Luck all, hold tight and wait for the breakout shown on my first chart above, because it’s coming soon!